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Wednesday, May 8, 2024

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A bell, a saw, an axe

A bell, a saw, an axe

A bell, a saw, an axe

Scientists who study election statistics are calling last week's vote on constitutional amendments that, among other things, would allow Vladimir Putin to remain president until 2036, the most unfair in 20 years. According data to the Central Election Commission (CEC), with a turnout of 65%, 77.92% of voters voted in favor of the amendments, against — 21.27%. Immediately after the results were summarized, electoral analysts began to publish graphs proving that this result could have been achieved only with the help of large-scale falsifications. For example, in the opinion of physicist Sergei Shpilkin, the actual voter turnout was about 44%, and the share of those who voted in favor of the amendments — about 65%. That is, only 29.3 million Russians supported the amendments to the Constitution.  

It is not easy to understand the complex analysis and graphs of electoral analysts, so «Important Stories» has prepared a visual explainer explaining why the past vote cannot be considered fair and what was the real scale of fraud. Understanding these graphs will give you a better understanding of electoral statistics and whether you should trust the official voting results.  

Just scroll down the visualization.

 

For you, researchers:

The electoral data of all the elections from this article has been uploaded into the Lab . Now, you can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Electoral data of all the elections in this article is available in the Navigator for Elections and Datasets for download and independent analysis.
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Elections in the article

Official name:

Russian national vote to approve amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation

Challenger/Leader:

Option "YES"

Wikipedia article:

All-Russian voting on amendments to the Russian Constitution

For you, researchers:

The data has been uploaded into the Lab .
You can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Electoral data is available for download and independent analysis.

Data report

Original data source:The CEC of Russia
URL of the source:www.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/region/izbirkom?action=show&root=1&tvd=100100163596969&vrn=100100163596966®ion=0&global=1&sub_region=0&prver=0&pronetvd=null&vibid=100100163596969&type=232
Data validation fileRussia_Constitution_Voting_2020.pdf
ParsingShpilkin
Dataset:Russia_Constitution_Voting_2020.zip
Date of verification7/5/2020
Verification of the dataset with the source:

Discrepancies: polling stations with 1.2 million registered voters (online voting in Moscow and N.Novgorod, 7 regions in total). For the first time GAS-Vybory was incorrect: the official total data did not match the sum of data for PECs, i.e. for individual regions, the data from parsing was more correct than the official CEC data.

Digital PECs were not included in Shpilkin's parsings in 2020.

The CEC, by introducing a captcha mechanism on its website, deliberately created obstacles to citizens reading and analysing election results. This, in turn, reduced the reliability of capturing published data using the Wayback Machine and similar servers.

in the Lab

On the same topic

Mateusz Bajek "The era of new opportunities: video observation and statistics combined (Russian Presidential elections 2018)"

Mateusz Bajek "The Age of New Opportunities: Video Surveillance and Statistics Together" (Russian Presidential Elections 2018)

Mateusz Bajek "The Age of New Opportunities: Video Surveillance and Statistics Together" (Russian Presidential Elections 2018)

Azat Gabdulvaleev "Analysis of election results in the city of Grozny using graphical visualization and turnout counting based on video recordings from polling stations"

Azat Gabdulvaleev "Analysis of election results in the city of Grozny using graphic visualization and turnout counting based on video recordings from polling stations

The subject of the study is the capital of the Chechen Republic - the city of Grozny. It should be said that Chechnya consistently shows superloyal results in elections at any level.

Azat Gabdulvaleev "Graphical visualization of open data as a simple way to detect anomalies in voting results"

One such method is graphical visualization of open data. There is little or no math involved, but the charts can immediately identify some anomalies and indicate areas that need more detailed investigation.

So you can visualize open data in a graphical way.

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