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New parameters to explore

New parameters to explore

New parameters to explore

Since the summer of 2020 in Russia, early, early at home, and at-home (so-called "bad") voting has become massively influencing the outcome of elections. Previously, if such forms existed, they were of insignificant scale.

These forms have little or no independent civilian oversight. Except for one thing: official data statistics. Therefore, with EDG 2020 we introduce new parameters for analysis.

Percentages of invalid votes, early votes and conditional "normal voting" i.e., standard voting at the polling station on election day;

All parameters are displayed as a percentage of the number of participants, of the number of registered voters and in absolute terms.

We hope that the new methods of the crooks to escape civilian control will give us new methods to catch these crooks.

We can already see that in many regions the percentage of invalid votes is falling as turnout increases. It can be seen that this happens in rural areas. It turns out that rural residents are smarter, more literate than city dwellers, and fill out their ballots more correctly? In fact, without mass campaigns of ballot spoiling, it suggests that there is a higher rate of falsification in rural areas. And fraudsters are known to add votes to only one or two parties, and completely forget to add a proportional number of invalid ones. 

The so-called "Corbulon method'a" relies on this principle. It is not yet implemented in our Laboratory, but you can already notice this dependence from the scattering diagrams.

For an example, here's выборы главы Чувашской Республики 2020 года. You can see that as turnout goes up, the invalid percentage drops, you can see that this is an area - outside of the cities. And - surprisingly yes? - The percentage of incumbents is rising. 

Methods for estimating invalid turnout are not particularly popular, and you have the opportunity to be a pioneer. See for yourself™!

For you, researchers:

The electoral data of all the elections from this article has been uploaded into the Lab . Now, you can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Electoral data of all the elections in this article is available in the Navigator for Elections and Datasets for download and independent analysis.
Previous Article The first governor of 2020 has been uploaded to the Lab: Krasnodar Krai
Next Article Magnitogorsk City Council - unconventional analysis and an amazing flag
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Elections in the article

Russia, Unified Voting Day 2020

Official name:

Unified Voting Day 13 September 2020

Wikipedia article:

2020 Russian regional elections

Dataset Composition

The dataset contains complete election data for more than 1,000 districts.

The archive is divided into the following parts:

  • Data for the gubernatorial elections, for 21 September (file "Governors_results_21_Sep_2020_18_40.zip")
  • Data of byelections to the State Duma, for 21 September (file "byelections_Duma_results_21_Sep_2020_17_39.zip")
  • Data from  elections of regional parliaments, for 21 September (file "Reg_parliamens_results_21_Sep_2020_18_17_17.zip")
  • Election data for regional centres, as of 21 September (file "reg_centres_results_21_Sep_2020_17_24.zip")
  • Data on elections in "umnoe_results_21_Sep_202020_18_54.zip" for 21 September (file "umnoe_results_21_Sep_2020_18_54.zip")
  • Data on the movement (attachment/detachment) of voters, regional parliaments, as of 20 September (file "Reg_parliaments_voter_movement.xlsx")
  • Voter movement (attachment/detachment) data, gubernatorial elections, as of 20 September (file "Governors_voter_movement.xlsx")
Availability in the Lab

The following regional head elections are available for study in the Lab:

  • Bryansk Oblast, Governor
  • Jewish Autonomous Okrug, Governor
  • Irkutsk Oblast, Governor
  • Kaluga Oblast, Governor
  • Kamchatka Territory, Governor
  • Kostroma region, Governor
  • Krasnodar Territory, Governor
  • Leningrad Oblast, Governor
  • Penza Oblast, Governor
  • Permsky Krai, Governor
  • Republic of Komi, Head of the Republic
  • Rostov Oblast, Governor
  • Sevastopol, Governor
  • Smolensk Oblast, Governor
  • Tambov Oblast, Governor
  • Tatarstan, President
  • Chuvash Republic, Head

And also

Elections to the City Council of Magnitogorsk (Chelyabinsk Region)

.

Verifications were carried out only for these elections. The results of the verification can be found in the individual election cards in the Navigator for all elections on the site, datasets in the repository and samples available in the Laboratory

Data report

Original data source:The CEC of Russia
URL of the source:www.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/izbirkom
ParsingShpilkin
Verification of the dataset with the source:

Conciliation results: 

Since the dataset contains elections for more than a thousand districts, the verification with the original source was carried out only for the elections of regional heads. Minor discrepancies detected are related to the peculiarities of data presentation for digital precincts (for more details: in the cards of elections of regional heads).

These discrepancies were not significant.

Digital PECs were not included in Shpilkin's parsings in 2020.

The CEC, by introducing a captcha mechanism on its website, deliberately created obstacles to citizens reading and analysing election results. This, in turn, reduced the reliability of capturing published data using the Wayback Machine and similar servers due their inability to pass captchas.

in the Lab
Official title:

Election of the Head of the Chuvash Republic

Winner/leader:

Oleg Nikolayev

Wikipedia article:

Выборы главы Чувашской Республики (2020)

For you, researchers:

The data has been uploaded into the Lab .
You can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Electoral data is available for download and independent analysis.

Data report

Original data source:The CEC of Russia
URL of the source:www.chuvash.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/region/chuvash?action=show&root=1&tvd=22120001470212&vrn=22120001470208®ion=21&global=&sub_region=0&prver=0&pronetvd=null&vibid=22120001470212&type=234
Data validation fileRussia_The_Chuvash_Republic_The_Head_2020.pdf
ParsingShpilkin
Dataset:Russia_The_Chuvash_Republic_The_Head_2020.zip
Date of verification9/23/2020
Verification of the dataset with the source:

Reconciliation result: Discrepancy: 763 voters, 212 ballots.

Digital PECs were not included in Shpilkin's parsings in 2020.

The CEC, by introducing the captcha mechanism on its website, deliberately created obstacles for citizens to familiarize themselves with and analyze the election results. This, in turn, reduced the reliability of capturing published data using the Wayback Machine and similar servers.

in the Lab

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A bell, a saw, an axe

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Moscow and the Motherland are united

Not really, the slight bend of the Moscow tail downwards shows that Moscow was rather topping up than overshooting - and you can only hit the point (100%, 100%) by overshooting.

UPD: Mistake in the legend. Where it says "norm votes", it should read simply "votes" - including anomalous

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