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Monday, July 22, 2024

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The real turnout in Kuban was ~25%

The real turnout in Kuban was ~25%

The real turnout in Kuban was ~25%

And this is how the distribution of the results of the gubernatorial election by TECs looks like. The observation-covered Krasnodar stands out and shows - real turnout was ~25%.

Kanevskaya, where I spent my childhood, drew the highest turnout, 97%. And Pavlovskaya drew the highest percentage for Kondratiev, 94%. Crooks.

Interactive version (sorry, I didn't sign all the dots or it would be cluttered) - https://plotly.com/~ishukshin/89/

That's enough for a quick analysis, full report later.

For you, researchers:

The electoral data of all the elections from this article has been uploaded into the Lab . Now, you can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Electoral data of all the elections in this article is available in the Navigator for Elections and Datasets for download and independent analysis.
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Elections in the article

Russia, Unified Voting Day 2020

Official name:

Unified Voting Day 13 September 2020

Wikipedia article:

2020 Russian regional elections

Dataset Composition

The dataset contains complete election data for more than 1,000 districts.

The archive is divided into the following parts:

  • Data for the gubernatorial elections, for 21 September (file "Governors_results_21_Sep_2020_18_40.zip")
  • Data of byelections to the State Duma, for 21 September (file "byelections_Duma_results_21_Sep_2020_17_39.zip")
  • Data from  elections of regional parliaments, for 21 September (file "Reg_parliamens_results_21_Sep_2020_18_17_17.zip")
  • Election data for regional centres, as of 21 September (file "reg_centres_results_21_Sep_2020_17_24.zip")
  • Data on elections in "umnoe_results_21_Sep_202020_18_54.zip" for 21 September (file "umnoe_results_21_Sep_2020_18_54.zip")
  • Data on the movement (attachment/detachment) of voters, regional parliaments, as of 20 September (file "Reg_parliaments_voter_movement.xlsx")
  • Voter movement (attachment/detachment) data, gubernatorial elections, as of 20 September (file "Governors_voter_movement.xlsx")
Availability in the Lab

The following regional head elections are available for study in the Lab:

  • Bryansk Oblast, Governor
  • Jewish Autonomous Okrug, Governor
  • Irkutsk Oblast, Governor
  • Kaluga Oblast, Governor
  • Kamchatka Territory, Governor
  • Kostroma region, Governor
  • Krasnodar Territory, Governor
  • Leningrad Oblast, Governor
  • Penza Oblast, Governor
  • Permsky Krai, Governor
  • Republic of Komi, Head of the Republic
  • Rostov Oblast, Governor
  • Sevastopol, Governor
  • Smolensk Oblast, Governor
  • Tambov Oblast, Governor
  • Tatarstan, President
  • Chuvash Republic, Head

And also

Elections to the City Council of Magnitogorsk (Chelyabinsk Region)

.

Verifications were carried out only for these elections. The results of the verification can be found in the individual election cards in the Navigator for all elections on the site, datasets in the repository and samples available in the Laboratory

Data report

Original data source:The CEC of Russia
URL of the source:www.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/izbirkom
ParsingShpilkin
Verification of the dataset with the source:

Conciliation results: 

Since the dataset contains elections for more than a thousand districts, the verification with the original source was carried out only for the elections of regional heads. Minor discrepancies detected are related to the peculiarities of data presentation for digital precincts (for more details: in the cards of elections of regional heads).

These discrepancies were not significant.

Digital PECs were not included in Shpilkin's parsings in 2020.

The CEC, by introducing a captcha mechanism on its website, deliberately created obstacles to citizens reading and analysing election results. This, in turn, reduced the reliability of capturing published data using the Wayback Machine and similar servers due their inability to pass captchas.

in the Lab
Official title:

Election of the head of administration (governor) of Krasnodar Krai

Winner/leader:

Veniamin Kondratiev

Wikipedia article:

Выборы губернатора Краснодарского края (2020)

For you, researchers:

The data has been uploaded into the Lab .
You can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Electoral data is available for download and independent analysis.

Data report

Original data source:The CEC of Russia
URL of the source:www.krasnodar.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/region/krasnodar?action=show&root=1&tvd=22320002687250&vrn=22320002687246®ion=23&global=null&sub_region=99&prver=0&pronetvd=null&vibid=22320002687250&type=234
Data validation fileRussia_Krasnodar_region_Governor_2020.pdf
ParsingShpilkin
Dataset:Krasnodar Governor 2020.zip
Date of verification9/22/2020
Verification of the dataset with the source:

Reconciliation result: Discrepancy: 1 PEC (406 voters, 198 ballots).

Digital PECs were not included in Shpilkin's parsings in 2020.

The CEC, by introducing the captcha mechanism on its website, deliberately created obstacles for citizens to familiarize themselves with and analyze the election results. This, in turn, reduced the reliability of capturing published data using the Wayback Machine and similar servers.

in the Lab

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New parameters to explore

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A bell, a saw, an axe

Journalists "Важных историй" Alesya Marokhovskaya and Alexei Smagin made a curious "explainer" in their article. Recommended."Analysts believe that the last vote on amendments to the Constitution was a record-breaking vote on the scale of falsifications. They cite many complex graphs to prove it. «Important Stories» made a simple visual...

Moscow and the Motherland are united

Not really, the slight bend of the Moscow tail downwards shows that Moscow was rather topping up than overshooting - and you can only hit the point (100%, 100%) by overshooting.

UPD: Mistake in the legend. Where it says "norm votes", it should read simply "votes" - including anomalous

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