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Dependence of "Yes" share on types of turnout

Dependence of "Yes" share on types of turnout

Dependence of "Yes" share on types of turnout

Oh, how the electoral statistics would have gone wild if Bulayev in the AP had been told to publish data on how early voting was conducted by polling stations! Oh, how many fine examples of the falsification of this "triumph" we would have had, if it had been possible to look at the acts of early voting and scrutinize the lists of voters at PECs without scandals!

But the thundering statements about openness and publicity coming from the CEC are easily drowned out by the cotton-wool wall of lower-level commissions that guard state secrets from citizens.

I barely managed to break through the defenders of "nationwide approval" and to get some information at the grassroots level (at the level of TECs and PECs). But more about that in the next post.

Now I'll talk about what Bulayev failed to hide, and what came out even at the regional level. And what has come out is that the share of "YES" responses has a VERY high correlation with early voting and is almost independent of the July 1 vote. Here it is, an expressive picture. I dedicate it to the CEC, the AP probably doesn't care about it now.

(In the picture, the dots correspond to the subjects of the Federation)

For you, researchers:

The electoral data of all the elections from this article has been uploaded into the Lab . Now, you can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Electoral data of all the elections in this article is available in the Navigator for Elections and Datasets for download and independent analysis.
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Elections in the article

Official name:

Russian national vote to approve amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation


Option "YES"

Wikipedia article:

All-Russian voting on amendments to the Russian Constitution

For you, researchers:

The data has been uploaded into the Lab .
You can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Electoral data is available for download and independent analysis.

Data report

Original data source:The CEC of Russia
URL of the source:www.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/region/izbirkom?action=show&root=1&tvd=100100163596969&vrn=100100163596966®ion=0&global=1&sub_region=0&prver=0&pronetvd=null&vibid=100100163596969&type=232
Data validation fileRussia_Constitution_Voting_2020.pdf
Date of verification7/5/2020
Verification of the dataset with the source:

Discrepancies: polling stations with 1.2 million registered voters (online voting in Moscow and N.Novgorod, 7 regions in total). For the first time GAS-Vybory was incorrect: the official total data did not match the sum of data for PECs, i.e. for individual regions, the data from parsing was more correct than the official CEC data.

Digital PECs were not included in Shpilkin's parsings in 2020.

The CEC, by introducing a captcha mechanism on its website, deliberately created obstacles to citizens reading and analysing election results. This, in turn, reduced the reliability of capturing published data using the Wayback Machine and similar servers.

in the Lab

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New parameters to explore

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A bell, a saw, an axe

Journalists "Важных историй" Alesya Marokhovskaya and Alexei Smagin made a curious "explainer" in their article. Recommended."Analysts believe that the last vote on amendments to the Constitution was a record-breaking vote on the scale of falsifications. They cite many complex graphs to prove it. «Important Stories» made a simple visual...

Moscow and the Motherland are united

Not really, the slight bend of the Moscow tail downwards shows that Moscow was rather topping up than overshooting - and you can only hit the point (100%, 100%) by overshooting.

UPD: Mistake in the legend. Where it says "norm votes", it should read simply "votes" - including anomalous

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