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Saturday, April 13, 2024


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A bell, a saw, an axe

A bell, a saw, an axe

A bell, a saw, an axe

Scientists who study election statistics are calling last week's vote on constitutional amendments that, among other things, would allow Vladimir Putin to remain president until 2036, the most unfair in 20 years. According data to the Central Election Commission (CEC), with a turnout of 65%, 77.92% of voters voted in favor of the amendments, against — 21.27%. Immediately after the results were summarized, electoral analysts began to publish graphs proving that this result could have been achieved only with the help of large-scale falsifications. For example, in the opinion of physicist Sergei Shpilkin, the actual voter turnout was about 44%, and the share of those who voted in favor of the amendments — about 65%. That is, only 29.3 million Russians supported the amendments to the Constitution.  

It is not easy to understand the complex analysis and graphs of electoral analysts, so «Important Stories» has prepared a visual explainer explaining why the past vote cannot be considered fair and what was the real scale of fraud. Understanding these graphs will give you a better understanding of electoral statistics and whether you should trust the official voting results.  

Just scroll down the visualization.


For you, researchers:

The electoral data of all the elections from this article has been uploaded into the Lab . Now, you can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Electoral data of all the elections in this article is available in the Navigator for Elections and Datasets for download and independent analysis.
Previous Article Dependence of "Yes" share on types of turnout
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Elections in the article

Official name:

Russian national vote to approve amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation


Option "YES"

Wikipedia article:

All-Russian voting on amendments to the Russian Constitution

For you, researchers:

The data has been uploaded into the Lab .
You can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Electoral data is available for download and independent analysis.

Data report

Original data source:The CEC of Russia
URL of the source:www.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/region/izbirkom?action=show&root=1&tvd=100100163596969&vrn=100100163596966®ion=0&global=1&sub_region=0&prver=0&pronetvd=null&vibid=100100163596969&type=232
Data validation fileRussia_Constitution_Voting_2020.pdf
Date of verification7/5/2020
Verification of the dataset with the source:

Discrepancies: polling stations with 1.2 million registered voters (online voting in Moscow and N.Novgorod, 7 regions in total). For the first time GAS-Vybory was incorrect: the official total data did not match the sum of data for PECs, i.e. for individual regions, the data from parsing was more correct than the official CEC data.

Digital PECs were not included in Shpilkin's parsings in 2020.

The CEC, by introducing a captcha mechanism on its website, deliberately created obstacles to citizens reading and analysing election results. This, in turn, reduced the reliability of capturing published data using the Wayback Machine and similar servers.

in the Lab

On the same topic

Russia, the President 2024

Official name:Election of the President of the Russian Federation, 2024Winner/leader:Vladimir PutinWikipedia entry:2024 Russian presidential electionWikipedia entry (Rus.):Президентские выборы в России (2024)

DIY Kiesling-Shpilkin diagram

Good news for electoral observers, journalists and election investigators. You have a new and long-awaited tool - the interactive Kiesling-Shpilkin diagram. This detailed video lesson will help you understand how to work with this kit, what the advantages of an integrated approach are, how the tools help each other to detect an anomaly, or how the findings of one tool confirm the findings of...

Magnitogorsk City Council - unconventional analysis and an amazing flag

At the request of one of the losing candidates, we uploaded a multi-mandate election. For this purpose we had to conditionally bring 32 districts to one "single district": candidates were grouped by the political party that nominated them. Self-nominated candidates fell into one conditional "party". Only in one district there were two self-nominees.  You can already...

New parameters to explore

But new, non-transparent types of voting in Russia we introduce new parameters for studying elections in the Lab. The "ntransparent vote opens new horizons for your research.

Criticism and bibliography

The peer-reviewed paper again raises the question about the incorrectness of the statistical analysis. But it is based on a misunderstanding: the authors rightly point out and confirm with numerous examples that the histograms of elections may well be very different from the «Gaussian» even in the absence of falsifications. Probably, they have not seen the works mentioned above and...
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