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Natalia Z. The most suspicious elections 2019

Natalia Z. The most suspicious elections 2019

Natalia Z. The most suspicious elections 2019

Homework from Natalia Z. for the Visualizing Democracy course

 
Laborator's note:

Natalia has a keen eye! She has discerned valid coincidences between the results in TEC "Nevel ship" and similar TECs in Sakhalin. But as in the case with the Murmansk Ship Commissions, such coincidence has a natural origin. Thus, the graphs obtained in our Laboratory show that the number of voters at the suspicious PECs is 17:

Image

While the number of votes for Limarenko is 10. 17, perhaps, is a standard collective of a fishing trawler. And 10 is a coincidence, rare, but not "impossible" with a collective of 17 people. 

Image

The coincidence of results on small collectives of a dozen or two people is mathematical in nature, while the coincidence on PECs with 1,000-2,000 voters is human. 

Small collectives can be calculated both by name, e.g., "ship" and by constructing a graph, e.g., Gabdulvaleev.

The mathematical nature of the phenomenon called "integer fractions". So by constructing a graph, such as Gabdulvaleev's.

The mathematical nature of the phenomenon called "integer fractions" is clear from the fact that the results are exactly the same. It could be 3/5, 7/12, or, as in our case, 10/17.

I have no other comments on Natalia's work. Gabdulvaleev's necklace at the TEC "Ufa Ordzhonikidzevskaya" a fine and beautifully presented booty. 

For you, researchers:

The electoral data of all the elections from this article has been uploaded into the Lab . Now, you can see the elections with your own eyes™.
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Documents to download

  • Homework(.pdf, 1.98 MB) - 1388 download(s)

    Домашняя работа

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Elections in the article

Russia, Unified Voting Day 2019

Official title:

The single day of voting is 8 September 2019

Wikipedia article:

Unified day of voting 8 September 2019

Lab Note:

.

This dataset includes the 16 2019 gubernatorial elections:

  • Election of the Head of the Lipetsk Region Administration
  • Election of the Head of the Altai Republic
  • Election of the Head of the Republic of Bashkortostan
  • Election of the Head of the Republic of Kalmykia
  • Election of the Governor of the Astrakhan Oblast
  • Election of the Governor of the Volgograd Region
  • Election of the Governor of the Vologda Oblast
  • Election of the Governor of the Kurgan region
  • Election of the Governor of Kursk region
  • Election of the Governor of the Murmansk region
  • Election of the Governor of the Orenburg region
  • Election of the Governor of St. Petersburg
  • Election of the Governor of the Stavropol Territory
  • Elections of the Governor of the Chelyabinsk region
  • Election of the Governor of the Zabaikalsky Krai
  • Election of the Governor of the Sakhalin Region

All of them have been uploaded to the Lab and are available for your analysis.

Full dataset for the 2019 EDG elections is available on the Golos Movement website at Elections Calendar section.  

The polling station with a turnout of 117% is an error of the Bashkortostan election commission in the data of digital polling station #9011 (see CEC website)

 

For you, researchers:

Electoral data is available for download and independent analysis.

Data report

Original data source:The CEC of RF
URL of the source:izbirkom.ru/region/izbirkom
ParsingGolos
Dataset:RussiaGovernors2019.zip
Verification of the dataset with the source:

Results of verification:

not applicable.

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