Electoral Graphics
× Search
Monday, July 22, 2024


All articles of Electoral.Graphics

Articles on the website

You have selected:

Natalia Z. The most suspicious elections 2019

Natalia Z. The most suspicious elections 2019

Natalia Z. The most suspicious elections 2019

Homework from Natalia Z. for the Visualizing Democracy course

Laborator's note:

Natalia has a keen eye! She has discerned valid coincidences between the results in TEC "Nevel ship" and similar TECs in Sakhalin. But as in the case with the Murmansk Ship Commissions, such coincidence has a natural origin. Thus, the graphs obtained in our Laboratory show that the number of voters at the suspicious PECs is 17:


While the number of votes for Limarenko is 10. 17, perhaps, is a standard collective of a fishing trawler. And 10 is a coincidence, rare, but not "impossible" with a collective of 17 people. 


The coincidence of results on small collectives of a dozen or two people is mathematical in nature, while the coincidence on PECs with 1,000-2,000 voters is human. 

Small collectives can be calculated both by name, e.g., "ship" and by constructing a graph, e.g., Gabdulvaleev.

The mathematical nature of the phenomenon called "integer fractions". So by constructing a graph, such as Gabdulvaleev's.

The mathematical nature of the phenomenon called "integer fractions" is clear from the fact that the results are exactly the same. It could be 3/5, 7/12, or, as in our case, 10/17.

I have no other comments on Natalia's work. Gabdulvaleev's necklace at the TEC "Ufa Ordzhonikidzevskaya" a fine and beautifully presented booty. 

For you, researchers:

The electoral data of all the elections from this article has been uploaded into the Lab . Now, you can see the elections with your own eyes™.
Previous Article Andrei Buzin "The Evolution of Moscow's Electoral Anomalies"
Next Article Margarita J. The most rigged elections of 2019

Documents to download

  • Homework(.pdf, 1.98 MB) - 1388 download(s)

    Домашняя работа

Please login or register to post comments.

Elections in the article

Russia, Unified Voting Day 2019

Official title:

The single day of voting is 8 September 2019

Wikipedia article:

Unified day of voting 8 September 2019

Lab Note:


This dataset includes the 16 2019 gubernatorial elections:

  • Election of the Head of the Lipetsk Region Administration
  • Election of the Head of the Altai Republic
  • Election of the Head of the Republic of Bashkortostan
  • Election of the Head of the Republic of Kalmykia
  • Election of the Governor of the Astrakhan Oblast
  • Election of the Governor of the Volgograd Region
  • Election of the Governor of the Vologda Oblast
  • Election of the Governor of the Kurgan region
  • Election of the Governor of Kursk region
  • Election of the Governor of the Murmansk region
  • Election of the Governor of the Orenburg region
  • Election of the Governor of St. Petersburg
  • Election of the Governor of the Stavropol Territory
  • Elections of the Governor of the Chelyabinsk region
  • Election of the Governor of the Zabaikalsky Krai
  • Election of the Governor of the Sakhalin Region

All of them have been uploaded to the Lab and are available for your analysis.

Full dataset for the 2019 EDG elections is available on the Golos Movement website at Elections Calendar section.  

The polling station with a turnout of 117% is an error of the Bashkortostan election commission in the data of digital polling station #9011 (see CEC website)


For you, researchers:

Electoral data is available for download and independent analysis.

Data report

Original data source:The CEC of RF
URL of the source:izbirkom.ru/region/izbirkom
Verification of the dataset with the source:

Results of verification:

not applicable.

in the Lab

On the same topic

DIY Kiesling-Shpilkin diagram

Good news for electoral observers, journalists and election investigators. You have a new and long-awaited tool - the interactive Kiesling-Shpilkin diagram. This detailed video lesson will help you understand how to work with this kit, what the advantages of an integrated approach are, how the tools help each other to detect an anomaly, or how the findings of one tool confirm the findings of...

New parameters to explore

But new, non-transparent types of voting in Russia we introduce new parameters for studying elections in the Lab. The "ntransparent vote opens new horizons for your research.

Criticism and bibliography

The peer-reviewed paper again raises the question about the incorrectness of the statistical analysis. But it is based on a misunderstanding: the authors rightly point out and confirm with numerous examples that the histograms of elections may well be very different from the «Gaussian» even in the absence of falsifications. Probably, they have not seen the works mentioned above and...

Review of the ROIPP report "Mathematical Tools for Delegitimizing Elections"

Yes, something must be done with our society, which «still has some flaws». It is very gullible and therefore prefers Shpilkin to Borisov. But it is necessary to implement a number of measures to remove distrust in the procedures for establishing the results of voting». It is possible, for example, to establish not only a captcha for obtaining these results, but to declare...

Mathematical tools for delegitimizing elections. Report

3 сентября 2020 года на сайте Российского общественного института избирательного права (РОИИП) был опубликован доклад "Математические инструменты делегитимации выборов". In it, the authors criticized one of the methods of analysis: unimodality. They concluded that "with existing methods of mathematical analysis it is impossible to describe and make an...
Back To Top