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Sergei Shpilkin "Statistical Analysis of Elections"

Sergei Shpilkin "Statistical Analysis of Elections"
Сергей Шпилькин
/ Categories: Articles by geography, Russia, Unimodality, Dependence of results on the turnout, Kiesling-Shpilkin method, The Last Digit, Strings of Gabdulvaleev, Dynamics of official turnout, Geographical Anomalies, Slides and presentations

Sergei Shpilkin "Statistical Analysis of Elections"

Presentation at the I Round Table of Mathematicians

Sergei Shpilkin "Statistical Analysis of Elections"

In his work, Sergei Shpilkin gives a graphical overview of different methods of analyzing elections in different countries.

 
Previous Article Boris Ovchinnikov "Statistics against electoral fraud"
Next Article Roman Udot "Statistical Analysis of the Results of the Constitutional Referendum in the Republic of Armenia"
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Tags: ResearchFrance President I round 2014RF President 2012Armenia President 1996Armenia Referendum 2015Armenia Parliament 2015Azerbaijan President 2013France President I round 2017Poland President I round 2015Romania President I round 2014Turkey President 2014Ukraine President I round 2010Venezuela President 2013RF President I round 1996RF President II round 1996RF Duma 1999Armenia Parliament 2017
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Elections in the article

Armenia Referendum 2015

Details

Summary of the Referendum Election Armenia in 2015
Wikipedia article.

For you, researchers:

Electoral data is available for download and independent analysis.

Data report

Original data source:CEC of the Republic of Armenia
URL of the source:res.elections.am
Data validation file06.12.15n.pdf
Dataset:Preliminary results at 4-391.xlsx
Verification of the dataset with the source:

There is no need for verification because official data and the dataset are of a single source.

in the Lab

Documents to download

More links

Electoral Dossier

In the dossier

  • Sergei Shpilkin "Statistical Analysis of Elections"
  • Roman Udot "Referendum in Armenia 2015 in Numbers and Diagrams"
  • Roman Udot "Statistical Analysis of the Results of the Constitutional Referendum in the Republic of Armenia"

Russia, President 2012

Details
Official title:

Election of the President of the Russian Federation

Winner/leader:

Putin Vladimir Vladimirovich

Wikipedia article:

Presidential elections in Russia (2012)

Lab Note:

Data loaded in Tools version 1.0 only

For you, researchers:

The data has been uploaded into the Lab .
You can see the elections with your own eyes™.

Data report

Original data source:The CEC of The RF
URL of the source:www.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/izbirkom?action=show&global=1&vrn=100100031793505®ion=0&prver=0&pronetvd=null
Data validation fileRussia_President_2012.pdf
in the Lab
Electoral Dossier

In the dossier

  • Alexander Shen. II Roundtable of Mathematicians. 2018
  • Alexander Shen "What mathematical statistics can't say"
  • Sergei Shpilkin "Statistical Analysis of Elections"
  • Two-Humped Moscow
  • Moscow of a healthy person and Moscow of a smoker
12

On the same topic

Criticism and bibliography Criticism and bibliography

Criticism and bibliography

The peer-reviewed paper again raises the question about the incorrectness of the statistical analysis. But it is based on a misunderstanding: the authors rightly point out and confirm with numerous examples that the histograms of elections may well be very different from the «Gaussian» even in the absence of falsifications. Probably, they have not seen the works mentioned above and...
Review of the ROIPP report "Mathematical Tools for Delegitimizing Elections" Review of the ROIPP report "Mathematical Tools for Delegitimizing Elections"

Review of the ROIPP report "Mathematical Tools for Delegitimizing Elections"

Yes, something must be done with our society, which «still has some flaws». It is very gullible and therefore prefers Shpilkin to Borisov. But it is necessary to implement a number of measures to remove distrust in the procedures for establishing the results of voting». It is possible, for example, to establish not only a captcha for obtaining these results, but to declare...
Mathematical tools for delegitimizing elections. Report Mathematical tools for delegitimizing elections. Report

Mathematical tools for delegitimizing elections. Report

3 сентября 2020 года на сайте Российского общественного института избирательного права (РОИИП) был опубликован доклад "Математические инструменты делегитимации выборов". In it, the authors criticized one of the methods of analysis: unimodality. They concluded that "with existing methods of mathematical analysis it is impossible to describe and make an...
A bell, a saw, an axe A bell, a saw, an axe

A bell, a saw, an axe

Journalists "Важных историй" Alesya Marokhovskaya and Alexei Smagin made a curious "explainer" in their article. Recommended."Analysts believe that the last vote on amendments to the Constitution was a record-breaking vote on the scale of falsifications. They cite many complex graphs to prove it. «Important Stories» made a simple visual...
Moscow and the Motherland are united Moscow and the Motherland are united

Moscow and the Motherland are united

Not really, the slight bend of the Moscow tail downwards shows that Moscow was rather topping up than overshooting - and you can only hit the point (100%, 100%) by overshooting.

UPD: Mistake in the legend. Where it says "norm votes", it should read simply "votes" - including anomalous

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